Presidential election 2015

Anticipation of voter behaviour in the 2015 presidential election can be informed by the evolution of voter trends in previous elections. Analysis of election results in Uva over the last decade suggests that the war and war-victory created a deviation in voting patterns among UNP supporters. In the opportunities to vote in the early aftermath of the war-victory, a section of the UNP might have been persuaded to cast a ‘gratitude vote’ for the UFPA, especially President Mahinda Rajapaksa. The numbers suggest that in later elections the same voter might have decided to abstain (become a ‘sleeper’) thus making the UNP seem uncompetitive in electoral contests, even while the UPFAs’ vote share ebbed. The 2014 Provincial Council election in Uva signals a return from that deviation towards normal competitive politics.